Underwrite 1,702 filings the model never saw.
Every one is a real company frozen on the day it filed a 10-Q between July 2024 and September 2025, name removed. The set is 1,702 quarterly filings from 451 companies. Pick one, make your call, then see what the model said and what happened. 36 of the filings, from 16 companies, were followed by a bankruptcy within the year.
Answered
0of 1,702
Your Brier score
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Base model
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Trained model
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Always saying 2.1%
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Brier score is the squared gap between a probability and the outcome, averaged. Lower is better. All four are scored on the filings you have answered, so the comparison is fair.
All 1,702 filings
One square per 10-Q, oldest to newest. Click one. Answered squares take the colour of what happened.
Excerpts from the 10-Q as first filed, name removed. Figures from the filing's XBRL.
Probability this borrower files for bankruptcy within 12 months
10%
The base model is Qwen3.8-27B as released, asked the same question. The trained model is the same weights after 130 steps of post-training on 8,023 earlier filings, none later than June 2023. Neither saw these filings or their outcomes. The outcome is an 8-K reporting bankruptcy or receivership, Item 1.03, within 365 days of the 10-Q.